This article by David McEwen (Director at Adaptive Capability and Author of Navigating the Adaptive Economy (2016)) for Renew Economy argues that current thinking and approaches to climate risk are flawed.
The article discusses the challenges and misconceptions associated with assessing physical climate risks. It highlights the limitations of traditional risk assessments, which assume gradual climate changes while abrupt and significant shifts are already occurring. The article suggests that physical risks can escalate abruptly from manageable to catastrophic, and climate projections often have model limitations, leading to underestimating the severity of physical climate risks. Furthermore, current climate projections might be conservative estimates of future changes, as the climate system may be more sensitive to greenhouse gas concentrations than previously thought. The article recommends a more comprehensive approach to risk assessments that account for discontinuous changes and long-tail risks and emphasises the need for urgent action to mitigate emissions and adapt to the changing climate.