The Journal of Earth’s Future has published new open-access research titled “Evaluating Adaptation Pathways in a Complex Multi-Risk System.”
This paper addresses the complex challenge many regions face when dealing with interconnected disasters like floods, droughts and earthquakes. Traditional Disaster Risk Management methods often fall short, particularly in long-term planning that considers factors such as climate change. We apply a step-by-step approach known as “Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for Multi-Risk (DAPP-MR)” to assist decision-makers in better understanding and planning for these intertwined risks over time. This paper employs a hypothetical test case where different sectors (e.g., agricultural sector) seek effective ways to prepare for and respond to flood and drought risks. The DAPP-MR method facilitates this by breaking down the process into smaller, more manageable steps. This approach allows for an easier understanding of the direct effects of disasters and gradually incorporates more complex interactions between different risks. Our findings suggest that this step-by-step method can aid decision-makers in grasping the connections between various factors and their significance in formulating both short- and long-term strategies. The study also reveals that interactions between different risks can produce unexpected, nonlinear effects, adding complexity to the interpretation of policy outcomes.
Schlumberger, J., Haasnoot, M., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Bril, V., van der Weide, L., & de Ruiter, M. (2024). Evaluating adaptation pathways in a complex multi-risk system. Earth’s Future, 12(5), e2023EF004288. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004288