New open-access research published in the Journal of Shipping and Trade examines how climate change could affect maritime trade, focusing on agricultural commodities and key maritime bottlenecks, such as the Panama Canal, Suez Canal, and Turkish Straits. The study uses different economic models to predict economic outcomes by testing increased trade costs, shadow import tariffs, and shadow export tariffs. Findings suggest climate-induced delays at bottlenecks could lead to worldwide GDP losses, with a combined impact of $34Bn by 20301. The EU, North Africa, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa could face the most significant economic vulnerabilities. The findings highlight that climate change impacts bottleneck’s operations and can have detectable effects on the production and prices of agricultural commodities, which are associated with negative GDP impacts worldwide.



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