A high resolution model has provided 100 years of data to analyse the future risk of flash flooding. Projections show that under a high emissions scenario, rainfall events in the UK exceeding 20mm/hr could be four times as frequent by 2080 compared to the 1980s. Regional differences exist, with future changes in extreme rainfall events being almost 10 times more frequent in Northwest Scotland in 2080 compared to the 1980s, while in the south of the UK it is closer to three times more frequent. The intensity of downpours during extreme rainfall events in the UK could increase by 5-15% per °C of regional warming. The frequency of extreme events each year is likely to be erratic, with clusters of record-breaking intense rainfall events followed by periods when no records are broken. These findings highlight the need for effective risk management strategies to prepare for and mitigate the impacts of increased extreme rainfall events.


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