A new systemic risk scenario for the insurance and reinsurance sector has modelled the potential global economic impact of severe weather events leading to food and water shortages. The scenario estimates a loss of $5 trillion over five years due to hypothetical but plausible increases in extreme weather events linked to climate change that could lead to crop failures and global food and water shortages. The scenario includes three levels of severity with different probabilities of occurring in the next five years. It is supported by a data tool from over 107 countries that provides businesses, governments, and insurers with a data-driven financial impact assessment. The scenario underscores the significant climate risk protection gap, with only a third of the global economic losses caused by extreme weather and climate-related risks insured. This research is the first in a series of nine systemic risk scenarios produced by Lloyd’s Futureset in partnership with the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies to help risk owners better understand their exposure to critical threats, such as extreme weather, and the role of risk mitigation and insurance protection in building resilience.


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