This article on LinkedIn by Tyson Macaulay, a Researcher at the National Centre for Critical Infrastructure Protection, Security and Resilience at Carleton University in Canada, offers a detailed insight into forecasting critical infrastructure cascades. A case study of forecasting from two concurrent CI failures using econometric modelling was used when pipeline and water infrastructure received concurrent shocks in Manitoba, Canada. Forecasting is based on actual events in the Canadian province of Manitoba, which experienced two critical infrastructure failures in Winnipeg, the largest city in the province. This forecasting method offers insights into the cascading impacts of the recent water and energy infrastructure failures. Impacts were found to extend beyond those designated as critical industries, coupled with the fact that prolonged disruption has cumulative impacts on secondary and tertiary economic relationships and cascading stress accumulations into the food, health, transport and government and safety sectors.


Share this story